Parmi les nombreuses analyses de presse relatives aux toutes prochaines élections législatives allemandes, il faut relever le clair et bref éditorial de Sébastien Maillard - SG de l’association “Notre Europe - Jacques Delors" (voir ci-dessous in extenso) - dans lequel on perçoit en creux une comparaison avec la situation pré-électorale française.
Les points principaux de ce texte peuvent être ainsi résumés :
à la veille même du scrutin, le résultat final de l’élection demeure très ouvert : différentes formes de coalition (de gauche ou de droite) demeurent possibles,
l’élection se jouera au centre dans la mesure où les trois ou quatre principaux partis en lice sont de caractère modéré et libéral (au sens politique du terme),
le ou les partis vaincus constitueront une opposition démocratique et parlementaire de type classique,
les deux partis extrêmes (de gauche et de droite) ne joueront pas de rôle décisif au vu de la faiblesse probable de leur score électoral,
les dirigeants (et candidats chanceliers) des principaux partis ont été pré-désignés en temps utile et ne sont pas contestés en leurs seins (1)
le futur gouvernement (quelle que soit la coalition formée) restera pro-européen : l’ancrage allemand dans l’UE est une question “non négociable” pour les partis concernés,
il faut espérer que le nouveau gouvernement - tout en conservant l’esprit de compromis de l’ère Merkel - fera preuve de plus d’engagement et de volonté progressiste sur les questions européennes.
JGG 09 - 09 - 2021
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(1) notre ajout
Voici le texte (nos surlignages) :
German elections : challenging the spirit of compromise
"The approach of the presidential election should not overshadow, in France, the imminence of the German legislative elections.
These are decisive, first of all, for Germany and beyond for the whole of Europe, not only because the country is the leading economic power on our continent but also because this election marks the end of the Merkel era. More precisely, the beginning of the end, as the Chancellor could remain in office for several more weeks or even months while a new coalition is formed.
In a campaign where no theme dominates, nor any candidate imposes itself and in which the electorate is split and still largely undecided, the outcome of this federal election remains wide open. The combinations for forming a majority are multiple.
In this equation with so many unknowns, one certainty remains: the future German government will remain pro-European. More or less according to the new coalition, but in any case European. This is not so obvious in other founding countries of the Union, such as France and Italy. The feeling of belonging to Europe is strong in public opinion across the Rhine, as Eurobarometers regularly show.
The Federal Republic's European anchorage is a non-negotiable issue (except for the AfD party). The German elections are not giving any cold sweats to the Brussels bubble which is rather arming itself with patience in the face of the post-election negotiations that have been announced. Angela Merkel has not been the spearhead of integration. But her commitment and her spirit of compromise, which are indispensable to keep the Union running, have never been lacking. At least as much is expected of her successor.
Another certainty, which is not unrelated to the previous one, is that the election is being played out in the centre: centre-right, centre-left, 'centre-green' if you like, or liberal. Three of these parties could form the future coalition and a fourth could lead the opposition, which will not be reduced to the extremes. For its part, the far right (AfD) is stagnating at around 10% of voting intentions in the polls, which also give the radical left of Die Linke much less. This is a notable difference from the polarised political climate in so many other democracies. The German election campaign may be dull but it is not dirty.
These characteristics are a credit to German democracy, but at the same time they reveal a certain fatigue. Europe needs a Germany that is not content with the status quo but is capable of taking action. Faced with the climate emergency, the rise of authoritarianism in the world and so many other shocks and brutalities, faced with the limits of its own industrial model and faced with an ageing population, post-Merkel Germany needs to to reinvent itself. In short, to combine its spirit of compromise with the spirit of daring that Paris yearns for.
Sébastien Maillard, Director of the Jacques Delors Institute
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